United States

Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good.…

This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates.

Now the market are putting the odds of a hike next week at 96%, a virtual certainty. But the very fact that Yellen and her compatriots commented on the likelihood of a rate hike at a specific meeting has been the subject of consternation.

For years, many Fed watchers have claimed that the Federal Reserve has a secret third mandate beyond inflation and full employment. And this past February 21st, for the first time a Fed President said directly that, indeed, the Fed does…

If you look at the difference in yield between 2 and 10-year treasuries, the numbers in the last year are the lowest since 2008, when the US economy was in a recession.

It’s not the actual level of jobless claims that matters. It’s the change from one year to the next, due to the income shock associated with job losses.

Yesterday’s release of the Personal Income and Outlays data showed personal income increasing 0.4% in January, ahead of expectations. The numbers demonstrate that the US economy continues to expand at a solid if unspectacular pace. The…

The ISM manufacturing index showed the US manufacturing sector expanding at a faster rate, with the index hitting 57.7% in February. Importantly, the three major subindices - new orders, production and employment - all showed robust…

Underconsumption is the term we’re now using to describe the thesis that we are living in a world of excess supply. The novelty here - as I pointed out yesterday - is not that the world is oversupplied - and therefore lacking in developed…

I have three charts for you which demonstrate that the US Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy.