The latest poor numbers coming out of the auto sector
US auto sales have been down persistently on a year-over-year basis during the past several months. March was no different, according to figures released today.
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Browsing Tag
United States
Quick thought on how jobless claims matter
I have heard some people dismiss jobless claims as a data series for two distinct reasons that I want to flag given my view that claims data matter.
The US economy is doing OK right now
The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But…
Subprime auto delinquency rate at highest level since financial crisis
Increased delinquencies in the auto sector will spell trouble given the high LTVs of loans and lower credit scores of borrowers. And I am troubled by the OCC’s depiction of the commercial real estate sector; we could see heavy loan losses…
Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017
Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.
You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning
Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave…
How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits
I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption…
The Fed will continue to raises rates, even amid uneven economic data
Today the Federal Reserve raised the base USFed Funds interest rate a quarter percentage point to the range between 0.75% and 1.00%. There was only one dissent from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. And because this move was…
US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas
This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating…
US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike
The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but…