United States

I just finished reading an illuminating article by Andrew Ross Sorkin on healthcare and it got me to thinking about a review of structural reforms by Dani Rodrik which encapsulates the problem with fixes to ‘competitiveness’. The message:…

Baumol was a giant in promoting entrepreneurship. And most importantly here, his theory on rising costs in labor intensive industries is something that the Nobel committee considered in 2003 and should have given him an award for.

Remember the debates about structural unemployment back during the beginning of this recovery. The question was whether policymakers would write off a whole cadre of workers as ‘unemployable’ and formulate policy as if they weren’t…

Claims data are still consistent with an economy adding 200,000 per month, meaning we should expect a snap back from last month’s low figure when the US jobs numbers are released tomorrow.

From an economic perspective, the coming slowdown in production will dent GDP growth.

With demand for long-dated safe assets high, the yield curve will remain under flattening pressure. And that, combined with higher short-term rates will be negative for bank net interest margins and earnings.

Given recent hawkish Fed statements and the potential for even more than three hikes, all of this is bullish for longer-duration Treasuries but much less so for auto ABS, high yield and emerging markets.

Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win - and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.

What about running down the balance sheet — reverse QE if you will? I think this is where the Fed minutes offered some new thinking.