recession

I was looking at Tim Duy's latest post on monetary policy and asking myself the same question he asks about normalizing the interest rate cycle. Here's what Tim wrote about getting off the zero bound: "it is perfectly reasonable to…

I was discussing this with a few friends online a couple of weeks ago and now it's all over the news. Earnings have been poor, yet stocks continue to push higher. One argument was that "the key is deleveraging the banking system in an…

By Sober Look Back in May we discussed the impact of several possible "fiscal cliff" scenarios on the US GDP growth (the GDP drag). Those projections were developed by Goldman. We now have a similar analysis performed by Credit Suisse. CS…

I wrote a piece in the New York Times that appeared yesterday along with Mark Thoma and John Cochrane. The question was "Should the Fed Risk Inflation to Spur Growth?" My answer was that the Fed should always keep an eye on inflation as…

Here's another Tech Ticker segment on the state of the economy. Noted economic bear Gary Shilling believes the US is in recession or will be entering one shortly. His view is that wages have not grown robustly enough to warrant the level of…

As the Eurozone recession (which started months ago) worsens, the area's manufacturing activity, as measured by the PMI index, is contracting at a pace not seen since 2009. A great deal of this decline however is now driven by Germany…

Case-Shiller came out with some numbers earlier today, showing they too will soon be confirming the housing recovery in the US.

This daily will have to be quick since I am in transit. The best highlight here is jobless claims and how the auto sector is affecting both production and employment positively, potentially keeping the US from falling into outright…

I want to tie a few threads together regarding the synchronised global slowdown and the related drop in corporate earnings. US firms had been insulated on earnings due to not increasing staff and the global nature of their profiles. With…

I have said it in the past, but it bears repeating now in view of poor German economic data, as difficult as the austerity/bailout dance has been , it will become even more difficult in a downturn which affects Germany and other core…