recession

If you were not convinced about the severity of the present recession in the United States before, then the ISM Manufacturing index data for October will serve as a wake-up call. The index plunged to the deep recessionary level of 38.9…

So the numbers are in and the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% n the third quarter. That is a low number, but it is better than expected. The U.S. economy looks like it is in recession based on these numbers. However, before we go away…

I won't be able to comment here until later today when I will update this post. But I wanted to report that U.S. GDP shrank 0.3% in Q3, less than the 0.5% median forecast. Now, when it comes to government statistics like GDP, the devil's…

This morning in an e-mail exchange with Marshall Auerback, I questioned why the U.S. Dollar was rising so precipitously. I do understand much of this has to do with a need to refinance dollar-denominated borrowing by international…

For those of you who have been following things, you know we have had three panics since the credit crisis began. The first was in August 2007. The 2nd after Bear Stearns collapsed and the third was creeping up after IndyMac and the GSE…

While I am markedly more upbeat of late about economic matters, I still harbor some deep concerns about the direction of both the global economy and resultant political stability. The Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum has summed…

The U.S. industrial production numbers for September came out at 9:15ET this morning and they were very weak. However, it should be noted that the numbers were very distorted by lost production due to two hurricanes. Nevertheless,…

Yesterday, I laid out some of my general thinking on the business cycle and the economy. Obviously, understanding the business cycle is important to economic forecasting and is, therefore, central to personal financial planning, general…

Now that policy makers worldwide have finally stepped in to stop the bleeding, we have had a relief rally of monumental proportions. Most global indices were deep into oversold territory, meaning that there was lots of pent-up demand for a…

You have probably heard people bandy about the term pro-cyclical as it has become a key concept for economists as we enter a downturn. The crux of pro-cyclicality is that some things rise with an upswing, but fall with downswings --…