natural interest rate

Oil is one of several reasons the Fed might pause next year, rather than sticking to its three hike timetable. Housing is another. No wonder there was considerable speculation about a pause on the back of comments by Fed Chairman Jerome…

What if the Fed Model is wrong? Perhaps it's the change in the level of interest rates that matters, not the level. So irrespective of how high interest rates are, if the change, the delta, is large enough, it will produce an economic…

Last November, I posted a two-part piece on the limits of monetary policy based on a speech by Charles Plosser. The message of Plosser’s speech - and many subsequent speeches - has been that central banks are being called on to do too…