manufacturing

Economic growth warning signs are evident all around in recent data from the US, Europe and China. This should mean negative earnings surprises by Q3 earnings season.

The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been…

The uptick in US data is a nice relief given the fact that Europe’s manufacturing sector slowed to an 18-moth low. Overall, the US manufacturing sector is growing, but at a slower pace than last year. The data do not point to a pronounced…

The mitigating factors are the recent manufacturing data and the pickup in small business credit. I especially like to see small business with access to and take up of credit because that could mean renewed hiring. The jobless claims…

Japan is set to release a slew of economic data on July 1. Of these the jobless rate is probably the least important. It is lagging indicator, though softness in the job-to-applicant ratio would warn of no quick improvement. On the other…

The June Flash PMI reports, which were out on Thursday, do not make for agreeable reading, in the sense that while the French and German economies both continued to expand during the month, their rate of expansion, and in particular in the…

This is in line with the weak data we have seen out of the US in recent weeks. I expect Q2 growth estimates to continue to decline as the data come in.

In this column, Michael Pettis uses Germany and Spain as examples of the interplay between savings rates, trade balances and economic policy. Looking at this interplay, it turns out that domestic policies by the German government can…

The last time the curve was this flat was during the panic in 2008. So I am still concerned that the potential for a more abrupt slowing exists. So far growth remains robust.

On balance it would then seem that the consensus remains weighed towards no QE3 either because it is not needed or because it does not work in the first place. I think it is very simple in the end though. If sideways movement gives way to a…