liqudity

Themes for today: EM crisis in its infancy. Question goes to contagion US economic growth is decent but weaknesses now supporting bonds Europe is recovering with Spain brightest in periphery; France in trouble

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…

Last year, we saw a sea change in official German policy regarding the euro crisis and inflation. The German government came out in favour of accepting higher inflation domestically in Germany as a sacrifice for eurozone wage and price…

Portugal is going to market with a 10-year sovereign bond issue, its first since 2011. I think this is a pretty big deal. Think of it as a complete return to public market access for the Portuguese government, one of the critical…

This is an important day for Portugal. It is selling 10-year bonds for the first time in more than two years. Demand is reportedly strong. Today's 10-year sale follows the 5-year bond sale in January and heralds to full return of Portugal…

I listed Ireland in two of my surprises for 2013. I wrote that Ireland’s government bonds do not outperform again. Greece outperforms this year. I also wrote that Ireland goes to OMT. The first prediction is probably more controversial…

News links for 26 February 2013

It has been some time now since the ECB turned to monetisation to deal with its sovereign debt crisis. At the time, the Germans were out in full force attempting to stop the train of events and keep the ECB out of the political economy.…

The European Union released figures for Q4 2012 GDP today and they were awful. GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro zone and 0.5% in the entire EU. Stock markets are getting clobbered on the news and the euro is selling off. This is not unexpected…

Last year, I started off the newsletter with a list of ten surprises for 2012 which I reviewed last month. I apologize for not having a similar list of ten surprises for 2013 yet. I think it is a good exercise to go through to hone one's…