investing

That's right, despite all of the recent "bubble talk," it is entirely possible that stocks could rise 30% higher from here. However, it is not because valuations are cheap because as I discussed in my recent analysis of Q3 earnings stocks…

The macro debate today is about secular stagnation and the correct policy response to deal with it if it exists. With that backdrop, it is interesting to read Jeremy Grantham’s latest quarterly letter to investors, which sounds a word of…

Over the past couple of years it has gradually become the consensus view that QE has failed because it hasn’t created the economic growth that everyone was hoping for. I find that view overly simplistic and naïve in equal measures. QE - or…

When the working age population grows faster than the broad population, demographics become a tailwind as far as economic growth is concerned. Hence, what is likely to become a significant headwind for advanced economies in terms of…

The chart on gold is not looking very good. And it seems that retail investors have lost interest in the precious metal. Is this a correction within the longer-term gold bull market or is it a new secular bear market for gold? I have some…

It is worth noting that currently both markets are pushing deviation extremes only seen four times previously. The difference has much to do with the "secular market" within which these deviations occurred. The current deviation from the…

Just after I posted today, I ran across two posts from March that I wrote on government and private debt that are related to theme of today's commentary on potential housing bubbles in Germany and Sweden. I am writing here to more tightly…

After a rough patch this summer (driven by "taper" fears), consumer asset backed securities (ABS) business is heating up again. The bulk of that business is represented by auto and credit card loans. The pick up in demand is visible in the…

Select two countries with the worst performing currencies (against USD) over the past 4 months and go long equity indices of those two countries. Now select the two best performing currencies and short the indices of those countries (to the…

Below are the video and some excerpts from a recent interview BlackRock CEO Larry Fink did with Bloomberg Television. The interview here is mostly about the effect of the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis on the economy and…