investing

Expect the ECB to do something in June, but not QE Ukraine is the top geopolitical risk Rotation into defensive names in the US is worrying China is exporting deflation Easy money is causing a reaching for yield

I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions that I want to make clear. Grantham is…

I haven’t posted to the blog portion of Credit Writedowns for some time because my schedule has been filled producing the finance show Boom Bust on RT. So I apologize for not having a lot of content for you. Last week, I hosted my first…

Since 2007, the global economy has been in a near permanent sate of semi-crisis. Forget about Jamie Dimon’s quip to his daughter that a crisis is something that occurs every five years. Start thinking of the global economy as being in a…

Topics for today: Tail risk from Ukraine is increasing, giving rise to investment opportunity Argentina is still a basket case US housing will not add appreciably to a US growth acceleration I think the big news in the markets is…

Continuing where I left off yesterday, it’s clear that the global economy is growing now. We see growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and in emerging markets. Economic growth is the norm, not the exception. And over the longer term, markets…

My macro view for most of the global economy is upbeat. My only downbeat views concern deceleration of growth in emerging markets and froth in capital markets. But in the main, market and economic momentum is up and to the right. The…

The big news in the markets today is the standoff in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian armed rebels and the Ukrainian military. This has European markets selling off. The potential for problems in eastern Ukraine is something we should…

The US dollar is narrowly mixed, largely within its well-worn trading ranges against the major currencies with two exceptions. There have been several marginal developments over the 24 hours that are shaping the investment climate.

We view Q1 2014 as a potential turning point for EM this year, just as the May 22 Bernanke speech on tapering was last year. In recent weeks, EM has digested the start of Fed tapering, devaluations in Argentina and Kazakhstan, the Crimean…