interest rates

Now that the Fed has confirmed it won't raise rates and the dollar is dropping, for me it means that negative real rates will continue and that the currency wars are back on. I have comments on what negative real rates mean for investors. I…

The Turkish lira is under pressure today, and is also due to some market concerns with central bank credibility. Like in Brazil, Turkey macroprudential policies simply have not worked.

We argue that a key driver lifting the euro has been the divergent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

Today marks the first time we are witnessing a regularly scheduled news conference by a Fed chairman in the Federal Reserve's 98-year history. Most reactions to Ben Bernanke's performance were positive, meaning he reiterated the themes he…

What a cruel month April has been to the peripheral debt markets. Greek 10-year yields have risen 349 bp, more than the cumulative increase over the previous 11 months. Portugal's 10-year yield has risen 180 bp this month and 190 bp over…

Brazil current account deficit came in at a wider than expected -$5.7 bln in March, but was fully covered by FDI totaling $6.8 bln that month. On a 12-month rolling basis, FDI was $60.4 bln vs. a current account gap of -$49.8 bln, pushing…

The Fed chairman is now crafting the Fed's public image just as politicians do. The press conference is a part of that pubic relations campaign. What should we expect then?

Whatever thunder the FOMC meeting usually has is being stolen this week by the first of Bernanke's press conference tomorrow. In fairness, the FOMC's statement is unlikely to change substantively from the mid-March statement. The press…

Fred Sheehan argues that it is unlikely that Ben Bernanke will raise rates. He says either the market or a successor will do so. He adds that there are several similarities between current trends and those in 1994, a year when many…

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011. If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many…