interest rates

If you look at the difference in yield between 2 and 10-year treasuries, the numbers in the last year are the lowest since 2008, when the US economy was in a recession.

I have three charts for you which demonstrate that the US Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy.

Yesterday’s post on the failure of Japan’s monetary policy experiment drew some favourable commentary from a prominent macroeconomist that I want to run by you. The gist of his insight is that we have long been living in an age of an excess…

Yesterday’s most interesting headline in the Wall Street Journal was “The World’s Most Radical Experiment in Monetary Policy Isn’t Working”. After reading it, the right questions to ask are “why isn’t the policy working?” and “what does…

The problem with the Trump administration’s talk about lengthening the maturity of debt issuance is that it confuses the future path of interest rates with the steepness of the yield curve. They talk about locking in low rates. And what…

This is going to be a quick hit post to get some thoughts down on paper because a few threads are coalescing for me that I want to give some coherence to. The essence of the threads revolves around the tension at the Fed between normalizing…

One of the lead stories at Bloomberg this morning is an article about foreigners shying away from “financing the US government”. And the conclusion of this article is that it could mean higher interest rates in the US. Is this conclusion…

A lot of people are saying the rally in shares since early November that took the Dow over 20,000 is exhausted. That may be the case. However, short of a 1987-style crash, we’re going to have see a recession before shares retreat…

As the Trump economic team comes together, their economic vision is also coming together. In the last post, I laid out some overarching themes I am seeing from them on the hopes that reducing taxes and regulation will increase productive…

With the fed having raised interest rates for the second time in ten years, in an environment in which US growth looks pretty good, we should expect more hikes to come. The question is whether the economy can withstand the hikes and what…