India

Last year, I started my weekly newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give you a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occuring that I believed had a fifty percent or better chance of…

Why is the global economy hamstrung by heavy debts and weak banks? Or put another way, why doesn’t deleveraging happen, and the weight of debt reduce, and why doesn’t the economy expand so the weak banks can once more become robust and…

According to recent media reports, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is about to announce the appointment of University of Chicago professor and former International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Raghuram Rajan as India's chief…

The data pointing to the synchronised global slowdown continues. This time we have a string of data from the United States, the United Kingdom, India and China telling us that the economy is not doing well. Here I am leaving Europe aside.…

This week's newsletter is going to focus on how risk assets are setup given the continuing global growth slowdown and likely policy responses to it. The overall thesis is that shares and high yield bonds in the US are short-term oversold…

The news flow today is about the same as it has been throughout the week: JPMorgan Chase and Facebook in the US and Greece and to a lesser degree now Spain in the EU. I think these are the wrong narratives to be focused on. As I wrote…

When I listed my Ten Surprises for 2012 in January I predicted that China would have a hard landing, defined as quarterly growth below 5% annualised by the end of this year. But I also said that India would be worse than China. And it is…

The global growth slowdown began in the second half of 2011. I flagged it as a trend last May. When I updated my view in December, my concerns were Europe, China, India and Australia. And this is still the case.

In addition to the hole left by the Iran sanctions, the Saudis are pressured to pump more in order to meet their own rising domestic demand. This is putting strains on OPEC's spare capacity.

I thought now would be a good time to see how my ten surprises for 2012 are tracking as we are nearly a third of the way through the year. I posted these as my first weekly newsletter and these are events that have 1-in-3 odds of happening…