European breakup

The latest news out of the UK is that British Prime Minister Theresa May has decided to postpone a Parliamentary vote on the deal she negotiated with the EU over the terms governing Britain's departure from the EU. Had the vote gone ahead,…

I have six sections in todays's newsletter: markets, macro, micro, the US, the UK, and China. So there's a lot of news flow, most of it negative unfortunately. The key piece in the mix of all of this is the 4.2% update to the GDPNow…

A recent Sky News poll shows a majority of Britons now in favour of a second Brexit referendum.

The crisis is that the political center continues to weaken even though Europe, at least on paper, is enjoying a broad economic expansion. 

The Italian government will do whatever it takes to remain in the Euro. When others outside of government talk about Italexit and the like, it is meaningless. That's the message Tria is sending.

At some point, the ECB will likely be called into action. And they will give Italy an ultimatum on the fiscal front, just as they did with Greece.

The UK says it will leave customs union on in a year's time. But the border issue between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains unsolved. And while the Irish border is a particularly vexing issue, there are other near-term…

Two European elections – in Germany on 24 September 2017 and Italy on 4 March 2018 – warn that the peoples of Europe are drifting apart. Much of the recent deepening of these divisions can be traced to Europe’s single currency, the euro.…

The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets.

Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last…