The Coming European Growth Pact
Recent events in Europe mark the beginning of the push back against German-led austerity, but it is even bigger as the IMF's call for the ECB to cut rates illustrates
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Browsing Tag
Europe
Tracking My List of Ten Surprises for 2012
I thought now would be a good time to see how my ten surprises for 2012 are tracking as we are nearly a third of the way through the year. I posted these as my first weekly newsletter and these are events that have 1-in-3 odds of happening…
Chart of the day: year over year growth in Greek deposits of non-financial customers
The Greek private sector can generally only rely on the Greek banking system for credit. At the same time the Greek private sector is moving liquidity out of the country, dramatically shrinking the availability of credit.
Steve Keen: The Maastricht Treaty is a suicide pact for European leaders
Professor Steve Keen was on Tonight with Vincent Browne in Ireland last week, where the topic understandably was the European Union. The question for Steve was how the Maastricht Treaty fits his economic paradigm, which follows Hyman…
German decoupling is an illusion
The concept of German decoupling from the Eurozone recession may have been wishful thinking. The latest German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has converged with that of the Eurozone as a whole. Manufacturing PMI is a closely…
Sovereign debt implications for Netherlands are negative for France and Austria too
Fitch has not been as aggressive as the other two agencies, keeping Austria and France at AAA up until now. As such, its negative comments about the Netherlands are noteworthy and likely signal a harder line by Fitch in the coming months.…
Euro Zone News Stream Remains Negative
The string of developments has encouraged risk-off behavior. Equity markets are lower. Core bonds are higher. The high beta currencies, such as the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro,…
There will be more defaults in the eurozone
In last week's weekly newsletter, I explained why Spain was in big trouble. Today I want to present the full context euro zone-wide and why there will be more sovereign defaults to come in the euro zone. This will be a very comprehensive…
On the Importance of the French Elections
The French premium over Germany rose today to a three-month high. Rumors of a rating downgrade proved wide of the mark, but it reflects the market's anxiety about the outlook for France going forward.
Daily Commentary: On Auction Results from Spain
Today's big news was the bond auction in Spain. Spain's auction went off without a hitch but at a cost. Spain sold 2.5 bln euros ($3.3 billion USD). The Spanish Treasury sold a 1.1 bln euro bond maturing 31 Oct 2014 (average yield: 3.463%,…