On balance it would then seem that the consensus remains weighed towards no QE3 either because it is not needed or because it does not work in the first place. I think it is very simple in the end though. If sideways movement gives way to a…
We are in a mid-cycle slowdown not dissimilar to the ones we experienced in 1995 or 2005. I am remarkably sanguine about the ability of policy makers to induce a cyclical recovery via fiscal and monetary stimulus. And, of course things…
Marc Chandler: The Fed cannot rule out renewed Treasury purchases. It does not or should not deny itself its policy options. It is committed to do what is necessary to prevent a slide into deflation, which indeed is a forgotten element of…
I am more cautious than optimistic on risk assets and the global economy. From where I sit global growth prospects are not improving; they are weakening.
This note from Andy Lee shows a potentially bearish trend developing in the US stock market, with the S&P500 breaking down below it’s long-term trendline since the Federal Reserve started its second campaign of quantitative easing.
So, the data are weakening. What does that portend for the rest of the year? Lakshman Achuthan of the ECRI thinks it means a serious global slowdown. Below is a recent interview he did on Yahoo's Tech Ticker explaining why.
Many medium term investors are interested in the relationship between currencies and the equity market. There is also a sense among many observers that the market is moving in waves of risk on and risk off. To help shed light on the issue,…
Arguably the 30 year US bull market in bonds is at a close. What's clear is that yields are exceedingly low and real yields are now negative. In effect bondholders are often paying the US government to lend funds when inflation is taking…