Emerging Markets

By Claus Vistesen ... China! At least this is the conclusion from some fascinating number crunching from JPMorgan's Flow & Liquidity team in their report last week. I had a feeling that this was the case looking at the surge in…

The conflict in Ukraine is first and foremost about the violent overthrow of a corrupt regime that was not increasing living standards. But now that Ukraine has appealed to the west, it has become much more about Russia’s sphere of…

By Win Thin A little history lesson about Ukraine and Crimea may help put recent developments into better perspective. What emerges is a very clear understanding of why both Russia and Ukraine feel that they each have historical precedent…

Themes for today Emerging market political risk is now front and center. US data suggests consumption growth is vulnerable to poor wage trends. The European periphery banks are benefitting from lower sovereign yields. The potential…

Here are some brief thoughts on the monetary system’s role in repeated economic crisis in the last 40 years.

Themes for today: Real economy deterioration in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey is evident. Ukraine may be isolated without contagion. US data continues to surprise to the downside. Eurozone data may surprise to the upside. Sweden may…

My thesis has been that China was the main driver of volatility in emerging markets and that tapering by the Federal Reserve was merely a proximate trigger. I still believe this to be the case. However, increasingly I am becoming concerned…

I have been sitting on my ten surprises for this year because not enough ideas had crystallized… until now. I think I will be ready to write the piece next week. Let me go through my thinking somewhat stream of consciously here. As a…

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the slowing of Chinese growth and the rout in commodity currencies, something that affected both developed markets and emerging markets. But the concern has become emerging markets because of political issues…

Themes for today: EM crisis in its infancy. Question goes to contagion US economic growth is decent but weaknesses now supporting bonds Europe is recovering with Spain brightest in periphery; France in trouble