Emerging Markets

Last week the Fed admitted to having mistakenly made public forecasts by staff economists which suggested that the Fed is indeed on a 2015 rate hike path. As a result, policy divergence is now set to widen, with the result being a bid for…

Now that the Greek crisis has died down, we can return to surveying the global economy for clues as to whether global growth will continue unabated. My sense right now is that the major theme to watch remains policy divergence, with the US…

We are still in a post-crisis environment, and enough people are still negative on equities, and interest rates are low enough, to provide plenty of purchasing power. We therefore expect it to be an ok period for equities over the next year…

While I try not to be too alarmist here, it is clear now that the drop in oil prices has been both precipitous enough and long-enduring enough that we should start talking about this as a crisis in the making. We have an interconnectedness…

The Russian rouble was last trading at a rate a tad better than 55 roubles to the US dollar and WTI was over $56 a barrel the last I checked. This could be the end of a mini-crisis or a lull in events. I tend to believe it is a lull and…

Let me keep this Friday piece short as I am going to go a little out of my wheelhouse and talk about India. I have been hearing a lot of positive noises about India from various sources including Eswar Presad, Willem Buiter and Christopher…

Having just given you a mental model for thinking about tail risk, the natural next analysis is where the tail risk might be. Here are a few candidates.

I have a lot of threads to cover today. So let’s get right into it. New home sales. I want to start in the US first because the macro data backdrop is good. The first piece of data here is actually a bit soft and says that residential…

The number of market-based signals indicative of a slowing global economy are mounting along with weak GDP data in a number of important countries. In the face of a strong dollar and weak foreign currency translations, I believe it is…

The title here is a bit provocative I know. But it is really something I stole from an article about Stephen Roach’s view that I will use as a jumping off point for my Friday review.