Emerging Markets

This is Credit Writedowns daily newsletter for 19 Jul 2018. The big issues: the US economy, Fed policy, currencies, trade and government deficits.

Turkish bond yields are skyrocketing as the Turkish lira plummets. The question, though, is whether Turkey is an outlier or a sign of more to come.

This post first appeared on Patreon on 9 Jul 2018 Last week, I wrote up a macro bond play that involves three parts: currencies, spread differentials and default risk. I want to hone in on one of those three today: currencies. And here's…

As the Fed raises rates, it will likely be surprised both by how fragile EMEs are and by the spillover impact Fed policy still has abroad

It's early days. So I wouldn't call this a crisis. What I would say, however, is that the Fed's rate hike train is doubly negative for the emerging markets. We can see the effects in Argentina and Turkey in particular.

We should expect the Fed's tightening to continue. But a lot of the recent incoming data has been soft. And while this may just be a blip, I expect the curve to flatten further by mid-year.

Rotating into emerging market equities as the US market soars is Jeremy Grantham's recommendation. That's a daunting prospect for most US retail investors. Here's why.

Jeremy Grantham discussed his recent US market commentary with Consuelo Mack. The essence of Grantham’s comments were bearish for the US, suggesting investors could expect only a couple of percent real return over the next couple of decades…

With the fed having raised interest rates for the second time in ten years, in an environment in which US growth looks pretty good, we should expect more hikes to come. The question is whether the economy can withstand the hikes and what…

US and global economic growth is slowing. And this has caught the Fed out given its rate hike in December. The question, now, therefore is whether the Fed continues to hike in the face of this slowing, given the election looming in…