Emerging Markets

I am concerned about what is happening in the emerging markets but not alarmed. Fed tapering was a proximate trigger but not a cause. All indications are that the crisis is hitting only the most exposed and vulnerable markets and that this…

Now, when I look at financial markets going into 2014, I cannot recall ever having come across a more one-sided view than the one which prevails. The consensus view on bonds is overwhelmingly bearish while pretty much everyone is bullish on…

The share of EM-denominated Uridashi bonds has increased steadily from less than 10% in 2006 to nearly 55% in both 2012 and 2013. So far in 2014, that EM share has risen to over 60%. It is clear that the growth in EM Uridashi issuance has…

The Federal Reserve’s ‘taper talk’ in spring 2013 has been blamed for outflows of capital from emerging markets. This column argues that global growth prospects and uncertainty are more important drivers of emerging-market capital flows…

While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must…

The investment climate has proven extremely difficult for investors to navigate. Fed tapering and better world growth was to lead to higher interest rates. Yet interest rates for the developed world have fallen sharply in recent weeks.…

Themes for today: US economic growth is poised to be decent in 2014 Europe will recover but not at the same pace as the US EM is really a China contagion story. I am concerned but not alarmed Watch high risk sectors like leveraged…

By Win Thin and Ilan Solot With their backs against the wall, policy changes are ramping up amongst major EM countries. Yet the positive impact has been limited so far. We do note that countries that tightened aggressively and…

According to Wikipedia, the Taylor rule is a “monetary-policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to changes in inflation, output, or other economic conditions.” It is named…

George Magnus is one of the few economists that could claim to have predicted the financial crisis which began in 2007. And last night, he spoke with great concern about the budding crisis now ongoing throughout the emerging markets. I have…