ECRI

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, was on "Bloomberg Surveillance" this morning repeating his claim that a US recession "began around the middle of last year".

Retail sales are at recessionary levels right now, having dropped for a third consecutive month. I need to flag the inventories data that came out this morning in the US as the only thing between us and outright recession.

I would love to see ECRI explain why they have changed the date when they felt recession would begin and whether this means they were wrong in forecasting recession in 2011. yesterday, I said " I don’t think Achuthan is changing his story…

I have Bloomberg copy and a video of a recent performance by ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Tom Keene's show. A lot of people have been pouring scorn on business cycle forecaster Achuthan because of his company's recession forecast. I suspect…

The Institute for Supply Management released its widely-followed index of manufacturing activity today. The data show that the US manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. Given economic weakness elsewhere…

The ECRI released the following chart on the year-over-year growth in US real personal income. The takeaway here is that personal income growth is seriously flagging going into the fiscal cliff which promises to turn income growth decidedly…

Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC's Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look.

The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into…

The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In…