Economic Data

Achuthan proved to be an accurate forecaster of the economy throughout the double dip scare last year. Timing-wise, this dip is similar. I would say, though, Achuthan seems less optimistic this year than last. Take a look.

Coal is one of many natural resources which are in short supply. This article provides one example from India. Jeremy Grantham believes that peak resources is a phenomenon which will pose problems for the global economy in the future. He…

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were released this morning. As usual, I use the seasonally unadjusted numbers to see what is happening. The numbers show that home prices dropped 4.5% in the year to May 2011, with every market down…

As Europe’s leaders struggle to convince markets that their Greek debt problem-resolution-proposals are actually viable, and will really do the trick, last week’s flash PMI readings seem to have attracted rather less attention than they…

Felix Zulauf spoke to Barron’s Alan Abelson about his thoughts on the European sovereign debt crisis now that Greece has received its second 100 billion euro bailout. Here I discuss what Abelson says about the conversation and why I think…

Comstock Partners argues that while the stock market seems ready cheer any agreement that increases the debt ceiling and avoids a default, such cheering may be extremely short-lived as the economy sinks further under the burden of…

The Bank of Japan held a private briefing with a small group of analysts from leading financial institutions in their NY rep office. The Director-General of the Research and Statistics Department led the presentation. This column…

Economic growth warning signs are evident all around in recent data from the US, Europe and China. This should mean negative earnings surprises by Q3 earnings season.

If you are an investor, businessperson or employee, what you care about is outcomes. You want to know what’s likely to happen in the economy and in the markets. That is what this site is all about. What I see says that cuts were coming.…

The research presented below from the IMF from October 2010 "finds that fiscal consolidation typically reduces output and raises unemployment in the short term. At the same time, interest rate cuts, a fall in the value of the currency, and…