Economic Data

I flagged the inevitability of deficit fatigue as early as November 2008. I am sympathetic to the view that these deficits are an attempt to prop up excess credit growth and thus retard full recovery. But I also fear the consequences of a…

As we have said numerous times, economic growth following major credit crises is always slower than average, while recessions occur more often as consumers deleverage the vast amount of debt built up during the boom. In our view it will…

Gary Shilling sees a hard landing in China as they try to deal with the bad debt problem there. But note, when he says 'hard landing', he says this would "knock their growth rate in half." That's still almost 5% annualised GDP growth. Video…

If you want the macro view, this is a good book from DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach that covers the macro data plus a lot more.

Today’s unemployment data suggests that we are experiencing something far worse than a mere “bump in the road”, as our President described it last month. Today’s data should create real palpitations in the White House. This isn’t just a…

If you go back to the last jobs peak of 132.5 million in February 2001, at a pace of 150,000 jobs per month to account for population growth, you are looking at a shortfall of 18.8 million jobs. Given those numbers, there is really no…

The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been…

Dollar is mostly firmer ahead of NFP report; Stocks in Europe were impacted by new credit concerns. Market expecting a good number following ADP; USD/JPY likely to firm off the back of higher yields- The Brazilian real was the best…

Below are the findings of the recently released VocaLink Public Sector Take Home Pay Index. The VocaLink Take Home Pay Indices measure after-tax income as opposed to pre-tax gross income. So they are designed to reflect what Americans call…

Investors should consider monitoring the euro's risk reversals to compliment the analysis of spot. The current reading suggests the market less comfortable with long euro exposure than the relative resilience in the spot market would seem…