Economic Data

This past week, I have been focusing on the US economy and the Fed’s reaction function. I would summarize my view as positive about the cyclical trajectory of the US economy but concerned about so-called secular stagnation due to high…

Finnish society, like many other European ones, is in the throes of a major transition. More debate needs to be held on what to do to facilitate the transition, and in the meantime deficit spending to make investments in future productivity…

As I indicated yesterday, if the Fed is narrowly focused on the long-term path of inflation and arriving at a NAIRU-style full employment threshold, the data are relatively categorical that liftoff must begin this summer. However, I believe…

The biggest question facing the Federal reserve is whether their data dependency means looking through weak Q1 data and raising rates this summer anyway. Given the key elements of the Fed’s reaction function as I laid them out yesterday,…

The title of this post is what the Fed wants us to believe. It wants us to believe that it is prepared to raise interest rates this year but that it will increase them slowly by assessing the data, hiking once and re-assessing, and then…

Although the euro is now headed up after it overshot to the downside, I believe the European recovery has legs and will continue indefinitely as long as a calamity in Greece doesn’t pull Europe down.

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its next open market committee meeting and statement, I want to take a look at what US data are saying about the US economy. The main focus here is going to be the underlying pace of the US economy and…

One thing to keep in mind regarding both politics and shares in Europe is that upgrades to the growth outlook are coming and more should be expected. I see Germany doing particularly well given the decline in the euro. This is positive for…

The meltdown in Brazil is not exactly unexpected since one of my ten surprises for 2014 was that Brazil goes into recession. But I find the pace of the currency reaction alarming and we should be prepared for a crisis as a result. In the…

Continuing where I left off last week, I am going to emphasize here that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise US interest rates unless the US economy slows materially. Meanwhile, the economic and market fundamentals are moving in the…