Fed rate hikes, the European economy and the Brazilian slowdown
Finally, Greece is off the table as the big topic. So I have a few topics I want to cover and am going to put them altogether below. Let’s start with the U.S.
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Browsing Tag
Economic Data
When do we decide that Europe must restructure much of its debt?
It is hard to watch the Greek drama unfold without a sense of foreboding. If it is possible for the Greek economy partially to revive in spite of its tremendous debt burden, with a lot of hard work and even more good luck we can posit…
US economic data pointing up, bolstering Fed tightening bias
On Friday, the US jobs data showed that the US real economy is weathering the oil price decline very well as oil sector jobs account for little in the overall economy. Despite the capital expenditure effect on future growth, the US economy…
Yield curve inversion in the US when the Fed hikes
This is going to be a brief post on another of my potential ten surprises for 2015. The thesis here is that, with two year rates at 0.52%, all we need to invert the yield curve is a 50 basis point hike. While there is considerable…
Why deflationary pressure in China mandates monetary tightening, not loosening
Deflationary pressures in China indicates that we probably need monetary tightening, not loosening. I know this sounds extremely counterintuitive, and so violates what we have learned about the world by assuming that the world looks a lot…
Will India be the big surprise for 2015?
Let me keep this Friday piece short as I am going to go a little out of my wheelhouse and talk about India. I have been hearing a lot of positive noises about India from various sources including Eswar Presad, Willem Buiter and Christopher…
My reading of the FT on China’s “turning away from the dollar”
By Michael Pettis
The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients…
The bullish US jobs report
This morning, the US Labor Department reported a very bullish 321,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in November, well above expectations. Importantly, average hourly earnings showed the biggest gain since June 2013. And hours worked…
How might a China slowdown affect the world?
By Michael Pettis
Two years ago it was hard to find analysts who expected average GDP growth over the rest of this decade to be less than 8%. The current consensus seems to have dropped to between 6% and 7% on average.
I don’t think…
Positive baseline economic outcomes and more on oil’s global growth dividend
Tim Duy wrote a post on his blog on Sunday about his optimism about the US economy that got me thinking and I want to use it as a launching pad for a discussion about baseline economic scenarios. My baseline is positive, optimistic if you…