default

Before I get into the markets, let me point out two nice data points released this morning. The data The first is Q3 GDP for the US, which came in at 33.1% on an annualized basis and ahead of expectations for 31.0%. That's 7.4% growth in…

The Turkish central bank has days to stop the currency freefall before we see defaults.

If a US trade war escalation leads to a wave of bankruptcies in China, the Chinese escalate in kind.

The Amazon analogy I made last month really makes sense when talking about Tesla because we are nearing the end of this cycle. Now is the time to worry about cash flow because the potential for a sudden funding halt is increasing. Amazon's…

The sense I get is that Powell is a closet Taylor Rule devotee. If I'm right, then the neutral rate is quite a bit higher than where we are now.

We are only seven months into Donald Trump’s presidency. And I think we can call it a failure. I’ll have a lot more to say on that momentarily. But I want to flag this as not being a dealbreaker for the US or global economy because people…

My argument has been that the US economy is not yet at stall speed and that recession is not on the horizon. However, I believe the US is slowing, and that, in conjunction with a strong dollar and the ongoing global growth slowdown, this…

The Greek government has now been boxed in by the “no” referendum vote and is unable to make the kinds of concessions a “yes” vote would have allowed. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup’s thinking about the manageability of Grexit is coalescing…

The easy part of gauging likely outcomes in the Greek sovereign debt crisis was predicting default within the eurozone. But now that this has happened, the situation becomes murkier and it is unclear what will happen next. Below I will put…

I know I keep saying that economics is not a morality play. But when it comes to Greece, I can find no other satisfactory explanation for what is going on. I've reminded everyone before about Irving Fisher's famous observation: "The more…