crisis

The large increases in Target2 imbalances at the heart of the euro zone's banking system are widely considered not just a risk to national governments in the event of a eurozone breakup, but also a sign of capital flight. We have seen the…

As I wrote regarding the Spanish bank bailout just now, large losses at European financial institutions likely mean that equity will be wiped out. Government will then need to decide how the losses will be paid for. In Spain's case, the…

The EU Summit decision on banking union is being questioned by some economists in Germany. This column argues that a banking union is a critical step in ending the EZ crisis and building a more stable EZ financial architecture. It is a…

This week I am doing the weekly newsletter in two parts, both outside the paywall. This is part one. As Charles Wyplosz has recently written, the euro zone's rescue strategy adopted in May 2010 has failed. Like his column, this column…

I was on the Alyona Show panel these past two Mondays talking to Alyona and Reason's Anthony Randazzo about the debt crises in the US and Europe. As much as we tried to find something we could disagree on, we ended up agreeing a lot in both…

The Martin Wolf piece about panic becoming all too rational fits very nicely with the macro case i made earlier today. He points to the private sector indebtedness and subsequent retrenchment as well as to the policy errors that have come…

This post is a brief outline in bullet points of my macro view of the global financial crisis both in terms of cause and effect and prediction. My goal here is to help me crystallize what the real issues are and how they are likely to play…

Hugh Hendry made some remarks about confiscation last week that I addressed in my TV appearance on RT's capital account (see video here). The gist of his comments was that he fears government's ability to confiscate wealth as a means of…

I thought now would be a good time to see how my ten surprises for 2012 are tracking as we are nearly a third of the way through the year. I posted these as my first weekly newsletter and these are events that have 1-in-3 odds of happening…

The Greek private sector can generally only rely on the Greek banking system for credit. At the same time the Greek private sector is moving liquidity out of the country, dramatically shrinking the availability of credit.