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There are two potential issues with the current re-leveraging cycle. First, the increase in the latest report, outside of real estate related mortgages as shown in the chart below, was primarily driven by increases in student and auto loan…

Loan growth rate in the US, while better than in the Eurozone, remains on a downward path. The latest figures suggest that loans are increasing at less than 2%, while deposits continue to grow at 6-7% per year.

My thesis has been that China was the main driver of volatility in emerging markets and that tapering by the Federal Reserve was merely a proximate trigger. I still believe this to be the case. However, increasingly I am becoming concerned…

2014 is a transition year for the United States because 2013 was the breakout year for growth. In the third and fourth quarters of 2013, US real GDP statistics showed annualized growth of 4.1 and 3.2% respectively. Official statistics also…

It may be something symbolic such as a small rate cut or possibly a more substantial move such as a new LTRO program, but the European Central Bank will be forced to loosen monetary policy in the near future.

I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might…

While JPMorgan's Loan to deposit ratio is particularly low, the bank is by no means unique. LTD in the US is at the lows not seen in decades. On an absolute basis the gap between deposits and loans is now at some $2.4 trillion and growing.…

Loan growth in the US continues to slow. Credit expansion is certainly not nearly as bad as what has transpired in the Eurozone, but the slowing trend is unmistakable. The current rate of loan growth is now significantly below the nominal…

When the Eurozone moved toward the backloaded austerity paradigm, last Spring, I started to change my tune on Europe. In June, I wrote that we should watch second derivatives in the Eurozone, because the change in change numbers are a…

US corporate credit is outperforming other forms of credit assets such as commercial real estate. A good way to see that outperformance vs. global risk assets is in the components of the Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Index. For the first time…