China

The big story today is the potential for a currency war, emanating from the escalating trade war between the US and China. But there's a considerable degree of data flow that I want to parse to give a more complete macro view. Having…

Everything I am reading this morning in the news flow points to increased geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of the post-Cold War world order. We are quickly moving to a more hostile balkanized geopolitical environment. And I…

The economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we're seeing in financial markets right now suggests markets are discounting serious economic problems down the line.…

By Marshall Auerback This post was originally published on AlterNet The breakdown in the Sino-U.S. trade talks has led a number of commentators to suggest that America’s “unipolar moment” of post-Cold War preeminence is over, as…

A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing.…

Treasuries as a political weapon If you don't have the right model of the economy and markets in your head, you can lose lots of money. Case in point is 'The Widowmaker Trade' in Japan where speculators misunderstood the limits of monetary…

Like yesterday, I have a few thoughts on the economic headlines below. This one is behind the paywall though and I am going to focus mostly on two topics. Yield curve inversion At its worst yesterday, the risk-off play saw the 10-year…

Trade and Currency Wars I am starting this article just ahead of the equity market open in New York. And S&P futures have the market opening down 1%. The market continues to be unsettled by the political uncertainty around the US-China…

The IPO market is hot As I wrote last night, IPO conditions right now seem nearly ideal for growth companies to come to market. The appetite for loss-making companies shows us that public investors are willing to overlook losses as long as…

I have an interview on Real Vision with currency specialist Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex coming up later today. And I wanted to sort out some of my macro thinking ahead of it. Let me run by you what I'm seeing in the markets…