bubble

Say I'm a politician and I am concerned about my re-election prospects in 2010.  I have been a member of Congress for seven years now and have developed a good reputation as a reform-minded economic realist willing to listen to a…

This September 2009 post still describes my general view on the U.S. economy. If I wrote it today, I would be more bearish medium-term because it is obvious that in 2010 fiscal and monetary policy will become less supportive of recovery.…

In a BBC Two interview, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan waxed fatalistic, saying that another financial crisis is inevitable due to animal spirits.  In his view, booms and busts are endogenous to the capitalist system, crises being the…

You have heard me use the phrase “liquidity is seeking return” to describe the increase in the price of riskier assets due to monetary stimulus. The Bloomberg News video clip below points to an increase in lending for buyers of riskier…

This new period of boom-bust makes for some very strange bedfellows.  Below is the video of Henry Blodget, the former Oppenheimer and Merrill Lynch Technology analyst, talking to Eliot Spitzer, the former New York attorney general who…

Late last year, I anticipated that the global slowdown would bring China’s GDP growth down to 2%, a level that would make most nations envious but which would have been catastrophic for China.  In the end, robust government stimulus…

Jeremy Grantham is out again with a very important investment strategy piece entitled “Boring Fair Price!”  He leads off by talking about how markets went from extremely overvalued a year ago to cheap back to a state which he considers fair…

In late June, I posted two items China’s present growth story is built on malinvestment and Chinese stock market bubble inflating, on the building bubble in Chinese lending and asset markets.  The crux of the posts was that China, in its…

This is an astonishing video in China with Hugh Hendry, the money manager who is bearish on China who I profiled earlier this month.  In it, he shows us building after building after building – all of them massive and all of them empty. …

I saw this post with cool pictures on popping bubbles and I thought about Alan Greenspan.  Sir Alan says you cannot recognize bubbles until after they have burst.  I think that’s nonsense – certainly in the case of the “Great…