banks

I had some bullish economic thoughts last week. But I also embedded a warning about support for bonds being broken. Yields at the long end of the US Treasury curve are rising, potentially to the top of a range between 1.00% and 1.50% and…

I haven't been teeing up thought pieces on the financial system on Credit Writedowns for a while now. And that's a shame since this site's name owes to the role I believe balance sheets in the financial system play in business cycles. So,…

I am reading the US Federal Reserve's bank latest bank stress test analysis because a colleague sent me an alarming note about it. And so I wanted to run my thoughts by you. I like the fact that the Fed is thinking in probabilistic terms…

We have started an experiment at Real Vision on our Daily Briefing where we have guest commentators more often. Our usual European commentator, Roger Hirst, is out for two weeks. And so we thought it would be a good opportunity to mix…

Yesterday was a nice little rally in shares on the back of good news about a virus trial and stimulus support in the US and Europe. That saw us get well over the 61.8% retracement level for the S&P500, where there had been a lot of…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…

Yesterday, I highlighted Germany in terms of downside global economic risk. We are experiencing a manufacturing- and trade-led deceleration in global growth. Germany is the most prominent large Western economy leveraged to both.

No major catalysts in either direction Right now, there are no major stories that I think will have any meaningful near-term impact on asset markets. We're definitely still in  a risk-on market phase. And ostensibly, this is largely because…

Italy's 10-year sovereign bond yield has risen from 1.78% at end of April and prior to the general election to 3.66%. That's the highest since the beginning of 2014 and the yield is still rising. Domestic banks and Italian life insurers are…

Today's daily post will feature a number of articles on topics I think should be on your radar screen, with a few thoughts from me on each article. And I want to lead with the Department of Labor's 8:30am jobless claims release. 1 -…