Australia

Asset market distress is mounting My default position recently has been more about volatility than a directional call on any specific asset class. But, in a world in which asset prices have been rising, increased volatility is almost always…

1 - More downside prices for Australia's housing market The Australian housing market is in the "bargain hunting" mode now. And that could add to downside losses. If you recall, the FT did a piece on the falling market, citing…

Yesterday, I connected the end of the carry trade and stress on Australian bank margins. The point was that the withdrawal of global liquidity wasn't just affecting emerging markets in our interconnected global financial system. Australia…

Short-term and long-term interest rates in the US have overtaken those in Australia for the first time in a number of years, with the Reserve Bank of Australia predicted to be on hold for another two years. This makes funding via US…

This post was originally published at China Financial Markets. By Michael Pettis Foreign perceptions about the Chinese economy are far more volatile than the economy itself, and are spread across a fantastic array of forecasts. On one…

My thesis for the global economy right now is that global nominal GDP growth will continue to slow, leading to more policy accommodation, with the outliers converging toward zero. The question mark in this is the Federal Reserve. Generally,…

This post will be a brief revisiting of three recent topics - Greece, oil capex, and Anglo-Saxon bond yields - due to recent news. The recent news reinforces my position regarding the potential for a deal in Greece. On capex reduction, the…

As low nominal GDP growth takes hold, we should expect short-term interest rates to remain low and for the yield curve to flatten. There are three main reasons this is so. First, low nominal growth rates imply low inflation. Second, to the…

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events…

Yesterday, I began my Ten Surprises List. As a reminder, the surprise list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has conducting doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for the last thirty years. Wien defines his…