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ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market
The jobless claims report released this morning shows a labor market that is supportive of continued growth. Combined with a much better than expected 250,000 increase in private payrolls in the ADP report, the claims data give us every…
Grantham: US asset bubble to pop in 2019
Veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham says that we won't see an imminent end to the US bull market. He expects a melt-up, not a meltdown. But Grantham goes on to say that we will see an asset bubble implosion in 2019, with as much as 50%…
ISM Manufacturing index shows US in brisk expansion; Fed to respond
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December 2017, marking the 103rd consecutive month of economic expansion in the US. The numbers point to a continued brisk pace of expansion, likely inviting multiple Fed policy…
The government versus the central bank: monetary policy as the only game in town
The working economic model in North America and Europe is one in which the central bank and the fiscal agents are working at cross-purposes, with the central bank doing the heavy lifting if stimulus is desired.
European reform and the German model to the rescue
When we talk about winners and losers in Euroland, the natural question is, “how can you make everybody a winner?”. And I think this is important while Euroland goes through a cyclical upswing since that’s when reforms can actually be the…
Eurozone winners and losers
The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis. And that’s been true since early in 2016. But it’s only now that big growth is kicking into high gear as the synchronized global upturn takes hold. But who are the winners and…
Some brief thoughts on the fragile geopolitical environment
My first words out of the gate this year at Credit Writedowns were that “given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood.” And I went on to say I don’t know why, but that I would tell you why when I figured it…
The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis
The European PMIs that came out today showed an EU economy that is not just in full recovery mode, but booming. Likely the ECB will reduce its level of accommodation in line with this growth.
2018 begins during a synchronized global economic boom
Given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood. Everything I see is pointing to continued expansion in the global economy.
Jobless claims data positive, no US slowdown evident
In the week ending December 23, initial jobless claims were just 245,000, keeping the average below 240,000 yet again. With claims still below year ago levels, there are no signs in the data that a US slowdown is coming. As a result, we may…