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The Camel’s Back
By Annaly Capital Management Ireland’s rating downgrade by Standard & Poor's on August 24 and the related news of its struggling millstone, Anglo Irish Bank , bring our attention back to the ongoing challenges facing sovereign entities…
Beggar thy Neighbour
“I am deeply ashamed to know that I won't be able to pay our staff. They have got mortgages, children. What am I supposed to do?" Jesus Manuel Ampero, Mayor of Cenicientos (Spain) It has been an unpredictable summer. Investors…
The Dollars State of Play
At the start of the summer, the two legs that had supported the dollar had given way. The European financial crisis eased and the U.S. economic momentum flagged. The summer months saw these developments extend. European countries on the…
On Big Trouble in Little Ireland and Other Links
I am finally back after taking most of August off and I should be up to near a full posting schedule in short order. While I was away, the site got a re-design and a speed upgrade. If you have visited since yesterday, you should notice that…
European Woes Weigh on Markets
Highlights The US dollar is broadly higher against most major and emerging market currencies today, with the yen and Swiss franc being the notable exceptions. With last week’s US employment data taking the immediate focus off the US and…
The Global Economy – Old Maids Who Won’t Play Anymore
by Claus Vistesen (with apologies to Frederick Goodall) The financial and economic discourse is a funny beast really; it can, if harnessed properly, shed light on future investor and market performance, it can give a diversified and…
Spain’s Economy Re-enters Contraction Mode In The Third Quarter
by Edward Hugh Well, that didn’t last long, now did it. Two consecutive quarters of minimal GDP growth seem to have exhausted the forces of a more than fragile Spanish economy. All the post-June data we are seeing suggests the economy has…
Better than Expected Jobs Data–Dollar Slips
The employment data was better than expected, but the dollar is not making much headway. The private sector added 62k and the July data was revised up to 107k from 71k initially. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.6% from 9.5%.…
Jobs Data–Often Anti-Climactic
Highlights The US dollar is mixed in quiet trading ahead of the US jobs report. With some risk-taking is returning to the markets on the back of data this week suggesting that the pace of the slowdown may be moderating and this is lending…
Political Risk Rises In Romania, Stay Short RON
By Win Thin, Senior Currency Strategist, BBH Developments in Romania today support our recent bearish call on the leu. EUR/RON has risen after we went long Aug 30 around 4.24. We still target the record high 4.40 from June and expect this…