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Should we be optimistic?
I have had a lot of other things on my plate and haven't been able to write as regularly as I would like. But I am going to try to increase the volume of posts by putting out more quick hits like this one that capture my macro view without…
Deflationary fiscal versus reflationary monetary: who wins?
Japan has joined the crowd and started an even more aggressive asset purchase program as the Japanese economy weakens. Meanwhile, serious tax hikes are poised to go into effect very soon. Japan plans to cut state spending because the…
The iPhone is no longer the best mobile but it’s enough for massive upgrade cycle
If you look just at the specs, the iPhone 5 is no longer the best of breed smartphone. Plenty of other handsets measure up including the Samsung Galaxy S III and the new LG Optimus G. In fact, these phones have superior specs on nearly all…
Brief thoughts about being at the zero lower bound when recession begins
I was looking at Tim Duy's latest post on monetary policy and asking myself the same question he asks about normalizing the interest rate cycle. Here's what Tim wrote about getting off the zero bound:
"it is perfectly reasonable to…
Fitch threatens Catalonia with downgrade to junk as Spanish sovereign contingent liabilities mount
Catalonia is the region that was first to announce plans to tap the Spanish government's 18 billion euro bailout fund as the region has been locked out of debt markets. Earlier today, the Spanish government announced that it had obtained 3…
‘Unprecedented crisis’ in the French single-family housing sector
In today's links was a Figaro article which pointed to a slowdown in French housing transactions in Q2 2012. As sales are the first to decline in a housing bust, this turn of events bears watching, especially because France is embarking on…
A more comprehensive look at the ECB’s OMT program
Last week I promised to provide a little more insight into what the ECB is doing with its OMT program and what this should mean for the euro, economic growth, and European sovereign bond markets. This weekly post is dedicated to that theme.…
The variables which will influence the ECB’s coming monetisation
I am off again this week and doing short duty on the blog. But I want to say a few words about the ECB and its impending monetisation plans given Mario Draghi's decision to pull out of the Jackson Hole event sponsored by the Kansas City…
Austrian and German Foreign Ministers back explicit euro expulsion mechanisms
Last year I predicted that the route that Europe would go would be fiscal integration coupled with explicit mechanisms for allowing an exit from the euro zone. For example, in November during the Italian crisis I wrote:
I continue to…
More on the ECB’s using redenomination risk as the rationale for intervention
A while ago I posted a translation of Joerg Asmussen's Frankfurter Rundschau interview and my interpretation of his commentary. Here is the rest of the translation and some commentary.
There are to be bond purchases once more. What makes…