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The Fed cannot support net interest margins
On Christmas Eve, the Wall Street Journal had two interesting articles on the credit situation in the U.S., one from the banks' perspective and one from the households' perspective. In general, the data were positive but I believe the…
Japan’s prime minister threatens to unify monetary and fiscal policy
Greetings to you all on Christmas Eve. I think the big deal today is not America or Europe, but Japan. The incoming Japanese Prime Minister is threatening to strip the Bank of Japan, the central bank, of its independence. What Mr. Abe said…
Spanish house price decline accelerates to 15.2% year-on-year
The last time I reported on the Spanish housing market in August, we were in the midst of a bank deposit run caused by the redenomination risk. This was pre-OMT. At the time, we saw an acceleration in the house price declines. House prices…
UBS and Jeffries cut Apple price targets. Still say buy
UBS analysts Steven Milunovich cut his price target for Apple from $780 to $700 today, and that has the stock reeling. It was down to $512 the last I checked, a loss of 3.3% on the day. I have great respect for Milunovich as an analyst and…
Chance of going over the fiscal cliff is now at least 75%
According to Stan Collender, the chance that the US goes over the fiscal cliff is now at least 75%. This rhymes with what I have been saying all along. I would put the number at 90%. The US will NOT get all of the line items to prevent the…
The stealth bank bailout via leveraged FHA loans
When David Stevens left his position in the Obama Administration in 2011 as the head of the Federal Housing Administration to go to head the Mortgage Bankers Association, the chief lobbyist for the industry he once regulated, I posted on…
2013 risk repricing to be feared since last one in 2009 caused sovereign debt crisis
Over the American thanksgiving holiday three years ago in 2009, the relatively small sovereign-linked debtor Dubai World announced it would suspend payments on its debt obligations. Dubai World was a state-owned conglomerate in the emirate…
Google thinks it’s winning the mobile “war” with Apple. Is it?
Bloomberg News recently conducted a wide-ranging interview with Google Chairman Eric Schmidt and the headline comments that are lighting up the technology world point to Schmidt's belief that Google is "winning" the mobile platform "war"…
Using Wynne Godley’s Sectoral Balances Approach to Forecast the US Economy
As you may know, I now use the sectoral balances approach very heavily in looking at economic forecasting. The crux of the sectoral balances is that, from an accounting perspective, every sector's deficit must be offset by an equal surplus…
Why Apple plummets on no news
Apple is down 4% today for apparently no reason. There is no major news on Apple that would justify such a loss. Yet, over the past few months, the stock has been breaking down in an ominous way, usually for no reason other than heavy…