Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

Technology shares priced for perfection

Edward Harrison Nov 21, 2017

Today’s Wall Street Journal shows that large-cap technology stocks are priced as if economic and earnings growth will continue for the significant future. However, this late in the cycle, the probability of a hiccup increases, making share…

Markets

Corporate tax cuts and monetary offset could mean recession

Edward Harrison Nov 20, 2017

Tax cuts in the US will accelerate the Fed’s timetable and increase the potential of curve inversion and eventual recession.

Markets

Market jitters and fake liquidity in leveraged loans and high yield

Edward Harrison Nov 20, 2017

With the US treasury yield curve flattening to almost 60 basis points between 2 and 10-year maturities, we need to ask where are the vulnerabilities in the market if this spate of good news ends. I believe we should look at high yield,…

Economy

The economic acceleration in Europe underpins global growth

Edward Harrison Nov 14, 2017

Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will…

Markets

Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yet

Edward Harrison Nov 7, 2017

If you look at the yield curve since the early 80s double dip recession, what you’ll notice is that inversion – where 2-year rates exceed 10-year rates - precedes every recession. Right now, we’re still 70 basis points from inversion…

Economy

No recession until at least late 2018

Edward Harrison Nov 3, 2017

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October bringing the baseline unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the lowest in nearly two decades. And while this number was short of expectations, revisions to the prior two months’ data meant a net gain…

Economy

First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming

Edward Harrison Nov 2, 2017

As we await the jobs number tomorrow, we should be fairly confident that the results will show an improving employment picture, especially in the wake of a hurricane plagued report last month.

Political Economy

Let me tell you why I’m still worried before detailing the positive economic data

Edward Harrison Nov 1, 2017

Yesterday I promised you to “look at individual economic data points and tell you why I think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory.” But before I get into that let me tell you why I still worry about the…

Economy

The global economy is hitting its stride right now

Edward Harrison Oct 31, 2017

Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last…

Markets

Overbought

Edward Harrison Oct 23, 2017

“I had to cover my shorts.” That’s what my friend Matt told me after the company came out with its quarterly earnings and issued upbeat projections. I asked Matt, “how long are you going to keep shorting these companies. This is like the…

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