Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Gold

The credit cycle is now turning down. Here’s the evidence and the vulnerability

Edward Harrison Nov 27, 2018

I started this post six days ago. But, I couldn't get it sorted because of the holiday and my need to start the blog site up again. That blog site thing and some maintenance issues at home were a real time suck. So let me give you an…

Blogs

Credit Writedowns is back!

Edward Harrison Nov 27, 2018

I am separating the free blog Credit Writedowns site from the paid newsletter site.

Bronze

The credit cycle is now turning down

Edward Harrison Nov 23, 2018

I am now stuffed with Turkey after days sitting around eating for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. Today is Black Friday, the biggest day of the year for retail sales. And so it makes sense to write this newsletter post today. I…

Daily

Expect political trench warfare as the economy slows

Edward Harrison Nov 16, 2018

This was me in October: The right narrative here is that the Republicans will lose very badly. And so, expect gridlock, political trench warfare, in the US starting in 2019. That’s going to be a significant factor controlling how well the…

Gold

Countdown to inversion: US Treasury curve flattening has resumed

Edward Harrison Nov 15, 2018

The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…

Economy

Is Trump’s goose cooked on the economy?

Edward Harrison Nov 15, 2018

The impression you get from a recent piece in Politico is that, yes, the Trump economy is in for tough sledding ahead: President Donald Trump, already in a grumpy post-midterm mood, faces a growing list of economic problems that could…

Gold

More on the meltdown in oil (and a cut in oil capex)

Edward Harrison Nov 13, 2018

We're getting to the point now where something very bad is going to happen. Someone is losing his shirt in the oil markets right now. And the question is whether that somebody impacts the US oil sector and oil capital expenditures. As I…

Bronze

Predicting the political economy for the 2020 US presidential election

Edward Harrison Nov 13, 2018

In recent months, I have mostly written about short-to-medium term outlooks. Part of that is because making medium-to-long-term predictions is hard. But I just saw three tweets on the political economy of 2018, each making a case for how to…

Daily

Confirming a second global growth slowdown as Trump tries to consolidate power

Edward Harrison Nov 9, 2018

The big picture: deflation is back There was a global growth slowdown that I flagged late in 2014. And it came to the fore in 2015, derailing the US economy and pushing the Fed's rate hike timetable back. Here we are with another one. I…

Gold

The bear market in crude

Edward Harrison Nov 8, 2018

Really quickly here: WTI has traded down into bear market territory today. I see it quoted at $61.38. The high was $76.90. Brent is also down to $71.81 from a high of $86.74. That's not official bear market territory yet. But it's coming…

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