Bullish US and EU data as we wait for the US jobs numbers
There are a lot of bearish views out there, suggesting recession is just around the corner. Frankly, I don’t see it.
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Data setback for the economic bears
The US economy has been growing for a record 129 months now. And the data that's been coming out of the US recently indicate that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Could the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak upset this trend?…
More on the coronavirus, tail risk and policy error
it’s now much more clear that the coronavirus is a serious event risk and that financial conditions are tightening very quicky. The Federal Reserve needs to take these signals seriously to prevent worst-case outcomes, that include recession…
Overkill on recession worries
I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…
A framework for thinking about tail risk
I woke up this morning to tweets from the amazing Lisa Abramowicz indicating a sizable move into risk-off territory for global markets on the back of coronavirus concerns. And because I talked about faulty market structure related to one of…
When is individual wealth too large?
In an interview with Ta-Neishi Coates, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tries to answer the recurrent question of 'when is it just too much money?"
Here's the clip. Watch the whole thing because I am going to comment on it.
The AOC position…
BBB fallen angels and fake ETF liquidity
Yesterday and today, there's been a bit of back and forth on Twitter about vulnerabilities in the high yield space. I thought I would weigh in via this newsletter because I think it's an important issue regarding faulty market structure.…
My constant end of cycle worries
Despite my seemingly panglossian 'cautiously optimistic' post last week, I am still very much worried that we are hitting the end of this cycle. I'll tell you why below. But, let me add just a few notes on style first! In keeping with 'the…
UK and US looking inward, withdrawing from global role
Quick note here
Did you know there was a peace negotiation surrounding Libya this past weekend? I certainly didn't until I watched the German evening news. This negotiation is getting absolutely zero play in the media in both the UK and…
The Iran conflict and why political events aren’t bigger economic drivers
Somewhere in the Credit Writedowns archive are comments regarding US President Trump to the effect that political economy shocks won't matter. So I want to share a quick anecdote with you on why I have never put too much stock in the…