Author
7783 posts 575 comments
On predicting the US and European cyclical economic outlook
As I mentioned in an earlier post on Europe, a slew of manufacturing data was released today. When I wrote the first post, Europe and Asia had been released but the US had not. SInce then, the US numbers came out showing a shock…
Chart of the day: Debt deflation in the eurozone periphery
Just to follow up on the last post, which was relatively optimistic about the eurozone, I want to show you this chart of non-performing loans in the periphery. I believe it tells a story of debt deflation and explain why the contraction in…
Watch second derivatives in the Eurozone
Markit released a slew of manufacturing PMIs today and the eurozone was the most heavily watched amongst the bunch. The data show Europe still contracting, but at a less pronounced pace. I believe this could be a positive harbinger.
US: Declining savings and deleveraging leads to releveraging
Economic growth is good. But what we want to see is job and wage growth to complement the asset-price growth. Without this catch up on the job and income front, the economy is on an unsustainable course.