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Tapering and the shift from QE toward forward guidance
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow to decide on the next step on monetary policy. In my view, this meeting is crucially important because it not only will mark a regime shift away from quantitative easing toward forward guidance,…
The Lame Duck President Obama and the Fed Nomination
US President Barack Obama is in his second term in office. And because he cannot run for office again, his decision-making is bound to be different this term than it was in the first term. We are now seeing that in Syria, regarding the NSA…
A retrospective on the crisis and thoughts on where we are headed
Today, I am not going to write about a specific topic but rather put together some random thoughts on the direction of the global economy. Next week, I will have some big things to say about the Fed and it's upcoming meeting. So I thought…
Today’s European periphery data points are bleak
Despite all the talk of recovery in Europe, the data suggest that the improvement in Europe is uneven at best now. The core has moved into a cyclical upturn but a lot of work remains in places like Italy and Greece. Today's data points…
This chart on housing is a big deal
This is crazy. John Carney tells us that not only are homes now growing increasingly less affordable, but the psychology of the US housing market is changing to one of the fear of being priced out. Frankly, I can't believe we are here…