Stat of the Day: Ireland soars to number three for highest government default probabilities in the world

Despite austerity in Ireland, things have gone decidedly pear-shaped for the Irish government as its bank bailout-ridden deficit has ballooned to a magnificent 32% of GDP and debt spreads to German bunds are at record levels.

Despite the sentiments expressed in the CNBC interview above by the Irish premier, bond market action is showing great levels of distress for the country in both public and private sectors.

Here is the public sector



And here is the private sector




If Cowen and Lenihan don’t get this sorted by next year, the IMF will have to step in as we said they should do a year ago. Cowen faces an impossible task and will be headed the way of the Greeks in due course.

Also see:

Source: CMA Risk Spreads

  1. Blankfiend says

    Portugal, Italy, and Greece are doing their level best to keep up with the Irish. Western Europe SovX is leaving the launch pad, and 3 mo Euribor continues to climb, with just a little inflection point to mark the “stress” test results.

  2. DavidLazarusUK says

    Ultimately I expect Ireland to default. It is simply a matter of time. The same for Greece and possibly Portugal. Ireland made the mistake of confusing bank debt with sovereign debt. It will ultimately pay the price for that mistake in a couple of years.

    1. Marshall Auerback says


      Samuel Brittain’s piece on this is very good.

      In a message dated 11/6/2010 1:39:52 P.M. Mountain Daylight Time,

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