This week’s favourite posts: 2010-05-28

By Edward Harrison On May 28, 2010

Thoughts on the week

This was a daunting week with equity markets down across the globe. I have the sense that the strength of the recovery is fading – and without some pickup out of the BRICs or via stimulus, we are likely to see a double dip (my baseline scenario). Data this week from the ECRI leading indicators and M3 as well as softness in US GDP, consumption and jobless claims all pointed in this direction.

The week was dominated by news out of Spain and a sense that what was a uniquely Greek crisis was spreading. The Spanish banks are weak and the coming austerity warranted a ratings cut from Fitch. Interestingly, CDS spreads for Spain have been lower than they for Ireland or Portugal, so Spain is not the country one would have anticipated to be next on the list of worries. Because of the weakness in US data, the tightening in China and austerity in Europe, contagion via another credit crisis has market participants alarmed.

However, going forward, I would expect the situation to stabilize. I see no immediate catalyst for panic the way we saw with Bear Stearns or Lehman. What we have now is a simmering crisis with bursts of volatility. The macro data flow will determine where this heads next.

Anyway, that’s it for now. Happy holiday weekend to my British and American readers. Be safe.

Edward

Oh, and here’s some good music to tide you over. Enjoy.

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