UK inflation exceeds Bank interest rate for first time since 1981

By Edward Harrison On Aug 12, 2008

Despite my protestations that inflation is due to fall sharply over the next six months, I do have to point out that real interest rates are not only negative in the U.S. all the way across the curve, they are also negative in most of the emerging markets and now in the UK as well. If that’s not the definition of easy money, what is?

Interest rates have fallen below the cost of living for the first time in 27 years.

In a landmark moment for the Bank of England, Britain now has negative real interest rates, news which will heighten calls for the Monetary Policy Committee to raise borrowing costs.

Retail price index inflation (RPI) – the most comprehensive measure of living costs – rose to 5pc last month, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The rate was actually slightly above 5pc – the current level of the Bank’s base rate – although it was rounded down to one decimal place.

RPIX, the measure which excludes mortgage payments and was until recently targeted by the Bank, rose beyond even this to 5.3pc.

–Telegraph, 13 Aug 2008

Fed Funds is only 2%. Inflation in the U.S. is 5%. Here are the treasury rates below — all with a yield below 5% right across the curve (source:Bloomberg).

U.S. Treasuries

COUPON MATURITY
DATE CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE TIME

3-Month 0.000 11/13/2008 1.8 / 1.83 -0.03 / -.031 20:22

6-Month 0.000 02/12/2009 1.98 / 2.03 -0.037 / -.039 20:27

12-Month 0.000 07/30/2009 2.11 / 2.17 -0.07 / -.073 20:00

2-Year 2.750 07/31/2010 100-18+ / 2.45 0-05½ / -.090 20:28

3-Year 4.875 07/31/2011 106-03 / 2.72 0-09 / -.098 20:14

5-Year 3.375 07/31/2013 101-00+ / 3.15 0-16 / -.109 20:33

10-Year 4.000 08/15/2018 100-25½ / 3.90 0-23 / -.087 20:35

30-Year 4.500 05/15/2038 99-12 / 4.54 1-01 / -.064 20:35

Note the following quote from the Telegraph article:

When real interest rates – namely after inflation has been subtracted – are in negative territory, it puts the economy in the unusual position where it becomes “more attractive to spend rather than to save,” according to Philip Shaw of Investec. “At the current rate, borrowing is more attractive than saving.”

This is the sort of thing that causes bubbles in the first place.