United States

A quick post here. Sober Look has posted on Citigroup's economic surprise index, noting that it has started to roll over again, ever so slightly. But the trend is clear for the past two to three months and it has been sharply higher,…

The following press release was issued by Moody's Investors Service earlier today regarding the United States. New York, September 11, 2012 -- Budget negotiations during the 2013 Congressional legislative session will likely determine the…

By Warren Mosler This was written by Michael Johns. I saw him on C-Span, contacted him, and have been in touch ever since. Michael is a conservative, and one of the Tea Party founders. As you can see below, however, he too recognized the…

By Sober Look Back in May we discussed the impact of several possible "fiscal cliff" scenarios on the US GDP growth (the GDP drag). Those projections were developed by Goldman. We now have a similar analysis performed by Credit Suisse. CS…

I wrote a piece in the New York Times that appeared yesterday along with Mark Thoma and John Cochrane. The question was "Should the Fed Risk Inflation to Spur Growth?" My answer was that the Fed should always keep an eye on inflation as…

This Great Graphic comes from an email I received from Thomson Reuters. It charts the nominal effective exchange rates (NEER)of the dollar, euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. It is weighted by trade partner, but is not adjusted for…

Why is the global economy hamstrung by heavy debts and weak banks? Or put another way, why doesn’t deleveraging happen, and the weight of debt reduce, and why doesn’t the economy expand so the weak banks can once more become robust and…

The data pointing to the synchronised global slowdown continues. This time we have a string of data from the United States, the United Kingdom, India and China telling us that the economy is not doing well. Here I am leaving Europe aside.…

I do have a lot of links though and here they are. The big issue is the economic slowing in the US and Europe. These articles demonstrate that the global slowdown is spreading beyond the eurozone periphery and is well entrenched in the US…

I would love to see ECRI explain why they have changed the date when they felt recession would begin and whether this means they were wrong in forecasting recession in 2011. yesterday, I said " I don’t think Achuthan is changing his story…