United States

The model I have a bit of a problem. I am not sure how to put today's post together. What I plan to dissect is the economic outlook as we escape coronavirus lockdowns. But, economies are so complex and the outlook is so uncertain that it's…

This post title may not seem relevant right now. But, let me explain it first. I was looking through my post drafts folder this morning, deleting ones that never made it to publication. And this post title popped up as having been…

Framing the problem The question on my mind today is about best case economic outcomes. How does a country get through the Covid-19 pandemic with the least bad economic outcome? And in thinking about that question, I want to do three…

The tenor of my recent posts to subscribers has been mostly about the real world economic outcomes being worse than anticipated. Today's data flow is no different. Earlier today, I talked about the abysmal PMI numbers in Europe and the…

How many people will die because lockdowns are lifted prematurely? That's the first question going through my head as I think about the logic of yesterday's post on the coronavirus lockdown. No sooner had I written that post predicting that…

Last night's coronavirus speech by US President Trump was poorly received by markets. US equity markets were jittery after closing in bear market territory. So, people were looking for concrete stimulus measures to have reason to buy shares…

I am growing a bit weary of all of the doom and gloom associated with the coronavirus outbreak. And I bet many of you are as well. Unfortunately, it is what is dominating both headlines and people's minds because it activates deep-seated…

Whenever I give the 'all-clear’ to the US economy - even on a near-term basis, I am always a little uneasy given how little we know about the lasting impact the coronavirus will have. And sure enough, after yesterday’s post on the…

I watched the Democratic Debate in Las Vegas last night. And after looking at some analysis of the economy and the debate this morning, I came to the conclusion that we are seeing a worst case scenario for the Democrats' hopes to defeat…

I just saw a tweet by Vox journalist Aaron Rupar discussing the controversy surrounding the release of Bernie Sanders' health records. And it led me to a series of conclusions and thoughts I wanted to run by you.