Jobless claims may signal the end is near
I have done my part over the past few weeks to write that I thought jobless claims signaled the potential for recovery. I started the drumbeat in late March. Here are the posts:
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Browsing Tag
Unemployment
GM offers a debt for equity swap to bondholders
As the possibility of bankruptcy draws nearer, General Motors is moving to sell non-core assets and to broker arrangements with bondholders and unions alike which will keep it out of bankruptcy. In a 9AM press conference today, new General…
How weak is the U.S. employment market?
Initial jobless claims came in above 600,000 for the 12th straight week at 640,000. Continuing claims came in at a record 6.1 million, up 3 million from this time last year. Both of these numbers suggest a very weak market and you can bet…
U.S. jobless claims fall to 3-month low, still over 600,000
Jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a three month low of 610,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis in another clear sign that fewer people are filing for jobless claims than early in the year. Nevertheless, 600,000 more filed for claims this…
Unemployment: U-6 data versus the Great Depression
Because of changes in the way the unemployment rate is calculated, the figures today are apple to oranges comparisons to the ones quoted for the Great Depression or even the 1970s. Further, changes in the economy (less manufacturing) and…
Employment situation report paints grim picture
I have just finished looking at the latest employment situation report and there is absolutely no good news there. This report is miles apart from the jobless claims data I reviewed yesterday and does not cofirm we are anywhere close to a…
A note on government statistics and unemployment
Update 31 Mar 2009: I am re-posting this post about unemployment figures from November 2008 because I think it relevant. The next unemployment number is coming out on Friday and I expect a large number. If you read this analysis, you can…
Are jobless claims peaking?
Tomorrow, we all await the unemployment number with anticipation. In all likelihood, it is going to be a nasty number edging us ever closer to the 9.0% I once saw as a sort of upper range number for 2009.
Meanwhile, jobless claims for…
U.S. jobless claims of 652,000 show continued weakness
Jobless claims for the week ending March 21st are in. There were 652,000 initial claims last week, bringing the unemployment roles to a record 5.56 million. Both figures are seasonally-adjusted and reflect minor changes in seasonal…
Is the economic contraction peaking?
I believe we may be seeing the bottom here. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman does as well. Here is what he has to say:
Our baseline expectation is that the pace of contraction of the US economy probably peaked in the horrific…