Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017
Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.
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Browsing Tag
Unemployment
How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits
I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption…
US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike
The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but…
Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike
Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good.…
Jobless claims are at their lowest level in 44 years
It’s not the actual level of jobless claims that matters. It’s the change from one year to the next, due to the income shock associated with job losses.
Proof that the global economy is re-accelerating
In February, the rate of growth of Italy’s manufacturing sector showed the fastest increase in output and new orders since December 2015. Employment growth was the highest since late 2000.
In defense of the Fed’s rate hike campaign
Thought I have been on recession watch for nearly all of 2016, I want to write this post as a reminder that there are upside scenarios for the US and global economy. The Federal Reserve looked forward and felt it could tighten into a…
Donald Trump and the return of Rockefeller Republicanism
With the Republicans taking both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency, the potential for Trump to reshape the party in his image is immense. The question now regarding the Trump economic platform is how much he will bend to the will…
Why I’m on US recession watch despite 2% growth
As I start this post, I am naming it "Why I'm on US recession watch despite 2% growth". I don't know if that name will stick when I publish this piece; nonetheless, that is the theme I am trying to get across. When I look at the economic…
Job growth is slowing, so when will the Fed hike rates?
The latest jobs report came in at 160,000 jobs added to US non-farm payrolls. As this number was below expectations, it effectively sidelines the Fed in June. And given we are in an election year, the chances of two rate hikes occurring are…