Unemployment

Jobless claims: a good coincident indicator of the US economy. If you look at changes in jobless claims it can also help you call turning points in the economy. I have done claims graphs a few times over the past six years but I haven’t…

The monthly employment situation summary for April 2014 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And the headline numbers were terrific. The unemployment rate measured by the household survey fell to a cyclical low of 6.3%, below…

Weak Q1 growth in the US is an aberration Chinese rebalancing may hit political limits soon around 7.2% growth

I have been off since Thursday due to the Easter holiday. But I want to write my traditional Friday post today with a grab bag of different issues I am seeing. I actually just want to focus on the US this time.

I have been saying for some time now that I believe peak growth in this US business cycle was Q3 2013. Nevertheless, I want to explore the possibility that growth will accelerate from here, something that could keep stock prices and other…

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's gains that were scored largely in response to Draghi's revelation that QE and a negative deposit rate were discussed at the ECB meeting. The consensus expects that the US economy grew 200k jobs…

We are seeing signs of significant improvements in US labor markets. The ADP report today was certainly an indication of recovery from the winter slowdown. One area to watch in the ADP report is construction, as construction payrolls have…

This is a loaded topic. This entry, however, is not intended to be political. Very few things in economics are good or bad in themselves, but rather can be good under certain conditions or bad under others. I want to try to tease out as…

Sanctions because of the Crimean crisis have had less economic impact than private portfolio preference shifts. However, as Ukraine moves into the EU sphere, further actions against Ukraine could be more far-reaching. China has moved…

US data have been better European periphery market access continues to improve Dollar weakness may be China-related Gold continues to get safe haven bid China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt Ukraine has become a military issue;…