trade

In 2008 and 2009 I argued that the crisis we were undergoing would affect every major economy in the world, but not necessarily at the same pace. I said that China would be the last major economy to emerge from the crisis. Why? Because the…

Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for…

The best resolution, and the one Keynes urged without success on the US in the 1920s and 1930s, is that Germany take steps to reverse its trade surplus. It could boost disposable household income and household consumption by cutting income…

Understanding the financial agreement within the context of that rivalry is more important than what it means for the future of the dollar as the world's more important reserve currency, invoicing currency and vehicle currency. Nor will…

The bottom line is that Italy is both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out, which is why it is still hanging dangerously in limbo-land. Since, as I argue in this article, some sort of restructuring or other is well nigh inevitable…

North Korea’s dear leader, Kim II, died a few days ago. His 3rd son is now in charge, as Kim III, Kim Jong Un (pictured). There is no better time to talk about North Korea than now, as evidenced by some timely expert opinions. So it’s time…

The country’s debt dynamics are far from unsustainable at this point, but given the weakening in the country’s export performance and the steady unwinding of the housing boom we can now anticipate I would expect growth to be weaker than…

I don’t think there is a whole lot to say about this week’s numbers beyond what I have been saying for the past several months. Nothing substantial has really changed. China’s external account is worsening, and will continue to worsen…

The ECB President admitted that budgets cuts and tax increases are contractionary -“in the short term” he added - but there are two ways to lessen their negative impact on growth: the confidence-enhancing effect that will follow the new…

China has an interest in preventing the total collapse of the largest buyer of its exports, but it also has an interest in forcing Europe to divest its overseas assets. Chinese banks and companies are in a position to be a buyer of some of…